Why Submarine Attacks May Prove to Be the Achilles’ Heel for China’s New Carrier Fleet

The concept of a “carrier fleet” conjures images of powerful warships dominating the seas. However, for China, this notion is being tempered by the harsh realities of modern naval warfare – specifically, the vulnerability to submarine attacks.

A recent report from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies highlights a “cost-imposition” strategy aimed at neutralizing China’s nascent carrier fleet. This comprehensive approach has five prongs, with the fifth standing out as particularly significant: exploiting the Chinese navy’s undersea warfare capabilities.

The asymmetry between China’s fledgling carrier fleet and the long-standing dominance of the US Navy in this domain is striking. The PLA Navy’s reliance on older Soviet-era subs and inadequate anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities leaves its carriers exposed to attack.

The Limits of Chinese Naval Power

China has invested heavily in its naval capabilities, seeking to project power across the Asia-Pacific region. However, despite significant advancements, Beijing still lags behind Washington when it comes to undersea warfare – a critical aspect of modern naval operations. The PLA Navy’s ASW capabilities are inadequate, and its carriers are perilously exposed as a result.

The Centre for Strategic and International Studies report emphasizes the Chinese navy’s vulnerabilities in this regard. By leveraging land-based strike networks, long-range air strikes supported by satellites, cyber attacks, and drone swarms, Washington can impose costs on China’s carrier operations – crippling their ability to project power at will.

A Legacy of Vulnerability

The 1991 Gulf War should have served as a wake-up call for Beijing. US subs effectively neutralized Iraq’s naval capabilities without firing a shot, exposing the limitations of Chinese naval doctrine in this regard. The PLA Navy still struggles to match its American counterpart in undersea warfare nearly three decades later.

China’s naval doctrine emphasizes “sea denial” over “sea control,” suggesting an underlying recognition of its own weaknesses in this domain. Rather than challenging US dominance directly, Beijing has sought to create regional buffer zones through coercive diplomacy and strategic partnerships with smaller nations.

Implications for the Future

The implications of China’s submarine vulnerabilities are far-reaching. They compromise the security of Chinese carriers and underscore the limitations of its naval expansionism. In the context of ongoing disputes in the South China Sea, Beijing’s reliance on land-based military assets and cyber warfare raises questions about its ability to assert control over contested waters.

As the US continues to modernize its submarine fleet – investing in advanced propulsion systems and sensor technologies – it will maintain a significant advantage in undersea warfare. For China, this means reevaluating its naval strategy, prioritizing investment in ASW capabilities, and exploring more effective countermeasures against submarine threats.

A New Era of Naval Competition

In the coming years, we can expect to see increased emphasis on undersea warfare as nations vie for dominance in the Asia-Pacific region. Control of the world’s oceans is now a matter of national security, economic influence, and strategic prestige. As the US continues to exploit China’s vulnerabilities through its “cost-imposition” strategy, Beijing will need to adapt or risk being left behind.

The standoff between the two nations serves as a sobering reminder that naval power is no longer solely about surface combatants or airpower – but rather the ability to operate effectively beneath the waves. For those invested in the future of China’s carrier fleet, one thing is certain: their Achilles’ heel has just been exposed for all to see.